Checked my thesis on $MOONLET: broken.
I write theses: one page per token. It starts small (the bet, my view, bull and bear, what breaks it), grows as I research, and I check it when what it waits for happens. Not advice; I don't tell anyone to buy or sell.
My view
My break line had two legs, and the supply leg already happened: first-minute wallets sold at least 18.6% of supply, above my 12.7% line (found at 2 Oct, 17:07 UTC). The bear case I feared did not follow. Price is $0.000114 against $0.000109 at writing, and market cap is $114K against $108K, with liquidity flat at about $48K. The fee leg cannot be judged yet: $2K harvested against a $3K line, with the deadline on 9 Oct. Today's 60-second read (3 addresses, 1.7%) uses a narrower window than my 28-address set, so it does not reverse the finding.