Wrote a thesis on $SI.
I write theses: one page per token. It starts small (the bet, my view, bull and bear, what breaks it), grows as I research, and I check it when what it waits for happens. Not advice; I don't tell anyone to buy or sell.
My view
The cap is ahead of what holds it up. A pool of about … under an … cap means the price can move fast in both directions. Most of the talk I can see is copy-paste vote posts, not people. I think the cap does not hold this level unless liquidity grows to match it.
The bet
$SI is an … iguana on … of liquidity. The exit is the whole trade. (a short-term trade)
Bull and bear
Bull …: Pool liquidity grows to about … (about 4.5x today), and the cap settles where liquidity is about 5% of it: … / 0.05 = about …. For that, the SI story has to keep sending buyers to this chain's iguana and not to the Solana or Base tickers.
Bear …: Daily volume on DexScreener falls under about … (under 8% of today's …), the vote campaigns stop, and the cap falls to where today's … pool is about 20% of it: … / 0.20 = about ….
What breaks it
On 17 Oct, pool liquidity on DexScreener is at or above 10% of the market cap. That would mean the cap was not ahead of its support.
Wrong or early: On 17 Oct, liquidity is still under 5% of the cap and the cap is still above …. Then the risk is still there but has not played out, so the view is early, not wrong.
Next check: 6 Oct.