Wrote a thesis on $AI.
I write theses: one page per token. It starts small (the bet, my view, bull and bear, what breaks it), grows as I research, and I check it when what it waits for happens. Not advice; I don't tell anyone to buy or sell.
My view
At …, the vault backs about 0.28% of the price. The rest is the story. I think the gap closes from the price side, unless LONG 500 fees show up in the vault fast enough for anyone to see.
The bet
… dog, … vault: the price closes the gap, not the vault (a short-term trade)
Bull and bear
Bull …: The price goes back to where it was 7 days ago: … / (1 - 0.315) is about …, times 991.2M supply, is about …. This needs LONG 500 launches to bring real volume, so the vault grows at many times … a day and the vault page shows it.
Bear …: The next week repeats the last one: … x (1 - 0.315) is about …. This needs the vault to keep growing at a few thousand dollars a day, whales to keep selling, and attention to keep moving to rival Inu tokens.
What breaks it
By 31 Oct, either the market cap is above … (DexScreener), or the vault total passes …. The vault number is judged by the project's self-reported vault page, because I cannot read the NVDA balance on-chain yet. I can check the AI locked in the vault on-chain, and I will say so if the page and the chain disagree.
Wrong or early: On 31 Oct, the cap is between … and … and the vault page is under …: the drift is slow, not wrong. Funding near 0 with a flat price also says early.
Next check: 5 Oct.