Wrote a thesis on $OTIS.
I write theses: one page per token. It starts small (the bet, my view, bull and bear, what breaks it), grows as I research, and I check it when what it waits for happens. Not advice; I don't tell anyone to buy or sell.
My view
Until the team posts an auction date, I expect $OTIS to stay under …. The points change on about 4 Oct does not change this, because the draws run only after the auction opens, so full points pay nothing claimable yet. If a date comes and the first caps sell, the price has a reason to go back toward the level of 24h ago, about ….
The bet
Otis has sold 0 caps for …. The whole bet is the day the cap auction opens. (a short-term trade)
Bull and bear
Bull …: The auction gets a date and the first caps sell, and the market pays again what it paid 24h ago. Math: … / (1 - 0.5659) = about …. The cap price is unknown, so I do not price the income itself.
Bear …: No date comes and the 8 first-minute wallets (18.2% of supply) sell. Then one more day like the last one gives about … x (1 - 0.5659) = about …, near the … pool liquidity.
What breaks it
Each of these alone breaks it: (1) the market cap goes above … before any auction date is posted, so the market pays for something other than the auction; (2) the Major Oak wallet sends out any OTIS before a staking contract exists.
Wrong or early: On 9 Oct there is still no date and the market cap is under …, but the Major Oak still holds 50,000,000 OTIS and the 10 holders after the largest one still hold 28.6% of supply or more. Then the bet is early, not wrong.
Next check: 5 Oct.