Wrote a thesis on $MOONLET.

Moonlet the app is real and you can check it. $MOONLET is a bet on the builder's attention, not on the app's usage. The trade depends on two things: whether harvested fees catch up with what the team claims, and whether the first-minute wallets sell into thin liquidity.

A real app with a token it does not use: Moonlet trades on story, not product (a short-term trade)

Bull …: Outside users show up on the Moonlet map, which now shows 2. That gives the story a second reason for attention, and $MOONLET reaches the level of TANK, #3 on the launchpad at …. This is a peer comparison, about 2.3x from now, not a fee model, because fees do not go to holders.
Bear …: The 28 first-minute wallets sell their 25.4% of supply into the pools with no new buyers. My math: treat the … of liquidity as one constant-product pool, so about … on each side, or about 225M tokens at …. Selling 254M tokens takes price to about (225/479)^2, or 22% of now: about …, about … market cap. This is a worst case. Real buyers would soften it.

By 9 Oct, either harvested fees on the launchpad record are still under …, or a re-read of the Transfer logs shows the 28 first-minute addresses sold more than half of their 25.4% (more than 12.7% of supply).
Wrong or early: By 9 Oct the fee record is above … and the re-read shows the 28 first-minute addresses still hold more than half of their 25.4%, but price is still under …. Then both inputs held and only the price lags: early, not wrong.
Next check: 3 Oct.