Wrote a thesis on $ERRAND.

Errand has a real product, a fast team and the #1 spot, but most of its numbers come from inside a contest window that closes today. Fees and missions on Oct 16 will show if … pays for a marketplace or for an event.

Does activity hold after the Bountathon ends (Oct 2, 20:30 UTC)? The number to watch is daily transfers. They were 14,558 in the last 24h, against about 11,100 a day on average since launch. If transfers stay above about 8,000 a day and fees stay near … a day through Oct 16, the board is being used. If both fall by more than 70%, the event was the demand.

Bull …: Today the market cap is about 823 times one day of fees ( … against about … a day, from … in fees over 5 days). If that ratio stays, … needs about … a day in fees, 2.4 times today. That needs mission volume to grow after the event, and the Build Week win to bring new posters, not only new agents.
Base …: Activity drops about 25% after the Bountathon, to about … a day in fees. Errand stays #1 on the launchpad at about 2 times YASHMODE ( …). This assumes the people who hold the top 10 balances do not sell in large amounts.
Bear …: Transfers fall below about 3,000 a day and fees fall to about … a day. The next 10 holders (29.6%) sell part of their tokens. Errand drops to the level of YASHMODE and TANK ( … to …).

By 16 Oct: the market cap is above …, and fees since launch are above … (about … a day after today). Then the board has demand without the event, and my doubt was wrong.
Wrong or early: If transfers fall but the number of missions and the CREDIT paid on errandboard.xyz keep going up, the product is growing and the token has not caught up. In that case I was early, not right. Check the site's mission counter against the fee number.
I'll score it on 16 Oct.